Jul 31, 2010

Japan: Economic Outlook

Japan's unemployment rate has been rising since end-Q1 2010—in other words, since the end of the cyclical export rebound. As Japan is really still only an industrial economy, not an information economy like the U.S. or eurozone, the downturn in exports means a slowdown in industrial production and hence employment growth.

in RGE

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EWJ),

Jul 29, 2010

Defaults And Official Support

"In situations of insolvency, official support not only fails to prevent the eventual default, but also exacerbates the trouble, causing more damage to the country and even to its creditors."

in Forbes

Jul 28, 2010

Oscillations In The Euro's Exchange Rate Against The Dollar

"It's been like a beauty contest where the issue is not who's the prettiest, but who's the least ugly"

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics

The Difference Between 2.5% Growth And 1.5%

"Well, the potential growth is around 2.75-3%, so if we are at 2.5% probably you create enough jobs to stabilize the unemployment rate, but at 1.5% you have job losses, unemployment goes up (...) 2.5% is close to potential while 1.5% is about half as much as potential."


Jul 27, 2010

In the Second Half Of The Year It Will Feel like A Recession

“Certainly the second half of the year has to be worse. Less than 2% in second quarter is not a recession, but everything is worse. It feels like a recession.”


Jul 26, 2010

US Economic Outlook

Video interview, CNBC, July 26.

European Stress Tests: The Assumptions Are Not Realistic Enough

"The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic enough"


Don`t Jump Into Gold

"The concerns propelling the price of gold specifically are very real and should not be ignored. But is now the time for investors to jump the gold bandwagon? We wouldn’t encourage it."

in Roubini Global Economics (RGE) clients note

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (Public, NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Public, NYSE:GDX)

Jul 22, 2010

An Orderly Restructuring Of Greece Is Unavoidable

An orderly restructuring is unavoidable, desirable and viable in ways that benefit both the sovereign debtor and its creditors.

in CNN Money

Jul 21, 2010

US Growth Will Slow To 1.5 Percent In The Second Half

"US growth will slow to 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010 and into 2011, the New York University economist wrote in the Australian Financial Review newspaper. The slowdown will feel like a recession, Roubini said.

The outlook for the euro zone is worse than the U.S. and growth may be close to zero by the end of the year, he wrote."

in Bloomberg

Jul 20, 2010

Doug Kass Asks Nouriel 3 Questions

"In the Q&A session, I asked Nouriel three questions:

I. How can he explain the schmeissing in U.S. equities when, at the same time, certain risk measures (lower bank swap spreads, Libor, junk bond yields, a higher euro, etc.) and risk markets appear to have stabilized?

II. Could the U.S. stock market be attractive in light of generally reduced economic expectations and lower corporate profit assumptions?

III. Could the U.S. stock market be attractive with markets selling at less than 12x realistic 2011 S&P 500 profits vs. an historical average of 15.5x and at 17.0x when interest rates and inflation are quiescent?

On the first question, Nouriel agreed with my observation that, unlike the May swoon, risk metrics had stabilized. I was delighted to hear that he said he now recognizes that his principal role is as an economist, as he has learned over the past few years that there are other influences that affect the equities market and that the stock market and the economy are often (especially on a short-term basis) out of sync. On the second and third questions I asked, he felt that the stock markets were still discounting higher and unrealistic economic growth and corporate profits. I responded that my impression is that economists have ratcheted down economic and profit forecasts -- many of whom are not materially higher than him now. On question three, he admitted that, absent another dislocation, stocks might be cheap relative to history."

in The Street.com

Jul 19, 2010

Oil Can Rapidly Spike And Trigger A Global Recession

And one cannot exclude the possibility of an Israeli military strike on Iran in the next 12 months. If that happens, oil prices could rapidly spike and, as in the summer of 2008, trigger a global recession.

in seeking alpha

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (Public, NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (Public, NYSE:OIL), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (Public, NYSE:SCO)

The Optimists’ Delusional Hopes For A Rapid V-shaped Recovery Evaporate

So, as the optimists’ delusional hopes for a rapid V-shaped recovery evaporate, the advanced world will be at best in a long U-shaped recovery, which in some cases – the eurozone and Japan – may be long enough to stretch into an L-shaped near-depression. Avoiding double dip recession will be difficult.

in seeking alpha

Jul 14, 2010

Risks And Challanges

“We have to recognize that Americans are adults. Then we have to speak to them straightforward about the risks and challenges that we have, rather than kicking the can down the road.”

in Bloomberg Radio

This Second Global Slowdown Could Not Have Come At A More Difficult Time

Politically, this second global slowdown could not have come at a more difficult time. In the US, Democrats and Republicans will soon retreat to their corners to prepare for November's mid-term elections. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama must again persuade America's taxpayers that a new surge in government spending is needed to protect a fragile recovery -- and at a moment when voters are telling pollsters that America's debt is as great a threat as terrorism.

in FT.com

Jul 13, 2010

The Global Economy Is Heading For A Serious Slowdown This Year

It looks as if the global economy is heading for a serious slowdown this year.

Emergency austerity programmes in some countries will put a drag on growth. Inventory adjustments will run their course. The effects of tax policies that steal demand from the future – such as the US “cash for clunkers” scheme, tax credits for home buyers or cash for green appliances – will fizzle out. Labour market conditions will remain weak. The slow and painful deleveraging of balance sheets and income-challenged households, financial institutions and governments will continue.

The result is governments and consumers that spent too much and now need to deleverage – in the US, Britain, Spain, Greece and elsewhere – will spend, consume and import less. But those governments and consumers that saved too much – in China, emerging Asia, Germany and Japan – are not spending more. In a world of excess supply, the recovery of global aggregate demand will be weak, pushing global growth much lower.

The most realistic scenario for global growth is painful, even if we avoid a double dip. In the US, 1.5 per cent growth in the second half of this year and into 2011 will feel like a recession, given a probable further rise in unemployment, larger budget deficits, a further fall in home prices, larger losses by banks on mortgages and loans, and the risk that a protectionist surge will further damage relations with China.

In the eurozone, growth will be closer to zero by the end of this year, as fiscal austerity and stock market corrections, along with rises in sovereign, corporate and interbank liquidity spreads, take their toll. Increases in volatility and sovereign debt risk will also undermine business and consumer confidence in ways that move beyond Europe.

Those hoping that China can keep the global economy afloat are likely to be disappointed. The world’s leading growth engine in recent years is slowing, from 11 per cent-plus towards a 7 per cent rate by year’s end. That will damage China’s exporters, while spelling bad news for export-growth in the rest of Asia, which increasingly relies on Chinese imports too.

Politically, this second global slowdown could not have come at a more difficult time. In the US, Democrats and Republicans will soon retreat to their corners to prepare for November’s mid-term elections. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama must again persuade America’s taxpayers that a new surge in government spending is needed to protect a fragile recovery – and at a moment when voters are telling pollsters that America’s debt is as great a threat as terrorism.

So the president must also tell voters that the longer-term solution to America’s economic insecurity involves both austerity and sacrifice. But abroad he faces an even larger problem. Mr Obama has limited leverage with the few remaining moderate Republicans, but the recent Group of 20 summit in Toronto showed him even less able to persuade European governments to shrug off fiscal worries. These countries seem unlikely to shift from their view that events of the past year in Greece, Spain and elsewhere – and fears of further crises to come – demand that the continent must learn to live within its means.

Nor should we expect much from the next G20 meeting in Seoul in November. A common fear of global meltdown provided some degree of unity at previous meetings. Yet, there is no longer international consensus on where tomorrow’s true dangers lie. Differing assumptions within the group over the proper role of government in a domestic economy make agreement on the details involving anything of substance very difficult.

Mr Obama’s critics often deride him as a man whose talents are limited to his fine speeches. Yet even if that were true, words matter. Plans to boost government spending in the near term, and to embrace austerity in the longer term, will only become more difficult if the president fails to explain the need for them. For their part, America’s Republicans need to accept that the path to a global recovery begins at home, with extended unemployment insurance and help for state and local governments.

Countries that save too much must also do their part for global demand. In particular, the Chinese leadership should recognise that failure to allow a more substantive revaluation of its currency will have serious consequences at home. It makes little sense to try to boost China’s local exporters while undermining the longer-term health of their best customers. Beijing must also move much more quickly to boost China’s domestic consumption.

The eurozone needs fiscal austerity, but it also needs a level of growth best provided by an easing of monetary policy from the European Central Bank. Early debt-restructuring of insolvent members should also be on the agenda. Germany should postpone its fiscal consolidation for a couple of years to boost disposable income and consumption. Outside Europe, Japan must accelerate economic reforms.

These steps will take time. Even if all are undertaken properly, global growth will recover only slowly. But if they are not undertaken at all, the risk of a global double dip, and a new financial crisis, will grow sharply. Policymakers cannot keep kicking the can down the road for much longer.

in FT.com, by Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer

Jul 8, 2010

The Ability To Backstop The Financial System Is Not There

A year ago we had all these policy bullets. We could push down rates to zero, we had quantitative easing, we could do a budget deficit of 10 percent of GDP or backstop the financial system.

Banks at this point are too big to fail, but also too big to be bailed, especially in Europe where the sovereigns are in trouble and therefore the ability to backstop the financial system is not there.

in www.dailymarkets.com

Related stocks: Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (Public, NYSE:STD), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BBVA), Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (ADR) (Public, NYSE:RBS), Lloyds Banking Group PLC (ADR) (Public, NYSE:LYG), Barclays PLC (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BCS), National Bank of Greece (ADR) (Public, NYSE:NBG), Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR) (Public, NYSE:CS)

Jul 7, 2010

Everything Signals A Global Slowdown

"Everything signals a slowdown of the US, a slowdown of Europe, a slowdown of Japan and a slowdown of China"


Jul 6, 2010

Banks Are Too Big To Fail, But Also Too Big To Be Bailed

"Banks at this point are too big to fail, but also too big to be bailed, especially in Europe where the sovereigns are in trouble and therefore the ability to backstop the financial system is not there."


German And Canadian Government Bonds Are Safe Haven

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist credited with predicting the financial crisis, said that government bonds of countries such as Germany, Canada and the U.S. will represent a haven from increasingly volatile markets in coming months.

in Bloomberg

Jul 5, 2010

Zero Growth In Eurozone

"Given the shocks of the last few months, by year-end, euro zone growth could be closer to zero percent"


Jul 4, 2010

The Global Economy Will Slow In Coming Months

"Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who is credited with predicting the financial crisis, said he expects the global economy to slow in coming months as governments slash budget deficits. U.S. growth will drop to about 1.5 precent by the end of 2010, while the euro area’s expansion may stall, he said at a conference in Aix en Provence, France."

in Business Week

Jul 2, 2010

The Economy Is Weakening

I don’t think we are going to have a third depression but the risk of a double dip recession are risign. Even in the US, the growth the second half of the year is going to fall towards one and a half per cent. The economy is weakening.

in Fox Business