Dec 28, 2012

A Zero Sum Game In Currencies/ Trade Balances

If a currency is weaker another is stronger; if a trade balance is improved another is worsened. Zero sum game in currencies/trade balances. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 27, 2012

The Debt Ceiling Is A Dumb Idea

The debt ceiling is a dumb idea: once Congress votes a budget, that determines the debt issued. So this yearly farce/saga on ceiling is crazy. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 26, 2012

"Benefit" Of Falling Off The Cliff

"Benefit" of falling off the cliff: we get more than 2 months after Jan 1st to hit the debt ceiling as spending drops and taxes are hiked. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 21, 2012

The Fiscal Cliff Looms Closer

"Mayan End of the World Cliff avoided but now the Fiscal Cliff looms closer as deadlock between Democrats and Republicans acute. Likely we go over the cliff." - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 20, 2012

The Euro Zone Periphery Shows Little Sign Of Recovery

"Nonetheless, the euro zone periphery shows little sign of recovery: GDP continues to shrink, owing to ongoing fiscal austerity, the euro’s excessive strength, a severe credit crunch underpinned by banks’ shortage of capital, and depressed business and consumer confidence. Moreover, recession on the periphery is now spreading to the euro zone core, with French output contracting and even Germany stalling as growth in its two main export markets is either falling (the rest of the euro zone) or slowing (China and elsewhere in Asia)." - in Live Mint 

Related: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares Germany ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 18, 2012

US Killings By Guns Outpace Those In Other Civilized Countries

In the US killings by guns outpace those in other civilized countries by a ratio of 50 to 1 or more. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 13, 2012

Inequality: It Is Not Clear We Will Do Anything About It

“This is an issue that is coming, but it is not there yet. It is clear in the U.S. we are talking about inequality. It is not clear we will do anything about it.” - in NYT 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 8, 2012

To Keep Greece In The Eurozone, You Need A Transfer Union

To keep Greece in the euro zone, effectively you need a transfer union, you have to realize that the problems of Greece are long-term, it’s going to take 10 to 20 years to do the austerity and the reform to stabilize Greece and therefore you have to give money and you have to be patient.

If you’re willing to do that for the sake of keeping the euro zone together, whether it’s economic reasons or political or geo political or foreign policy then Greece has a chance. - in The WSJ

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 7, 2012

We Will Have A Dovish ECB In 2013

Bearish ECB forecasts for 2013 - EZ recession & below target inflation - imply a Dovish ECB in 2013. So Scrooge pospones Xmas gifts to Easter. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 6, 2012

ECB Plays Scrooge

Draghi wishes to all "Merry Christmas" but ECB plays Scrooge as no monetary easing gifts under its Xmas tree in spite of festering recession. - in Twitter 

Related: iShares Germany ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

China Is Over-Investing

IMF now agrees with our Roubini Global long-held view that China is over-investing. Fixed investment is 50 percent of GDP. Lots of bad investments. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 4, 2012

Can The U.S. Economy Decouple From Other Advanced Economies?

Many advanced economies (EZ, UK, Japan) were in a recession in Q3 and/or Q4 of 2012. Can the US decouple from this risk as the cliff looms? - in Twitter 

Related:  iShares Japan ETF (EWJ), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares United Kingdom (EWU)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 3, 2012

The First Thing I Do When I Arrive In A Country

When I arrive in a country, the first thing I do is ask the cab driver how the economy is doing or what he thinks about their government. When I’m in the hotel, I ask the same questions, or I walk around and go to the local shopping center. You know, I try to get a sense. And when I’m in a country I also try to talk to people who are not necessarily purely the elite.

I think it’s true that the 1 Percent or the elite are living in a world of, maybe, excessive privilege, and they don’t fully realize how much pain and suffering, how much anxiety exists out there. I think there are lots of things that we have to figure out to make sure that we don’t have a social and political backlash. - in Business Insider 

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Dec 1, 2012

China: The Country's Unsustainable Growth Model

China's slowdown may be stabilised for a few quarters, given the government's latest fiscal, monetary and credit injection; but this stimulus will only perpetuate the country's unsustainable growth model, one based on too much fixed investment and savings and too little private consumption. - in Today Online 

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 28, 2012

Video: "Challenges To The Global Economy - Upside And Dowside Risks"


Nouriel Roubini`s presentation ("Challenges To The Global Economy - Upside And Dowside Risks") last week on Lima, Peru.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 27, 2012

A EU Of Regions? Not Likely.

Nassim Taleb idea of Anti-Fragile implies that a EU of regions would work better than a EU of nations. But fat chance of this happening. - in NR`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 21, 2012

2013: Downside Risks To Global Growth Will Be Exacerbated

"In 2013, downside risks to global growth will be exacerbated by the spread of fiscal austerity to most advanced economies." - in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 20, 2012

Peru Is A Success Story

Peru is a success story: 6% growth, low inflation, budget surplus, sound banks. But social tensions in the resource boom given inequality. - in Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 16, 2012

The Economic Contraction Is Spreading Now To The Core Of The Euro Zone

The economic contraction used to be in the periphery of the euro zone. It is spreading now to the core of the euro zone. For example, it is quite clear that France is entering a recession. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 15, 2012

China: Reforms Will Occur Slowly

7 members of China's SCP are cautious & conservative. Thus, reforms will occur slowly. Reformers didn't make it to SCP or given side roles. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 14, 2012

Even Germany Is Slowing Sharply

Even Germany is slowing sharply as its 2 key export markets - China and Eurozone - are weaker. - in Twitter 

Related: iShares Germany ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 12, 2012

Wall Street: The Strategy Backfired

After a massive bailout Wall Street bit the hand that kept it alive aggressively supporting Romney & attacking Obama, The strategy backfired. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nov 7, 2012

Obama Election Is A Major Defeat For Certain Groups

Obama election is major defeat of Tea-Party freaks, religious fanatics, anti-immigrant nativists, creationist lunatics, supply-side voodoos. - in Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 31, 2012

Canada`s Housing Market

The over-leveraged household sector and a potential deflation of the housing bubble would continue to pose significant risks to the banking system stability in the near term. - in Macleans, Canada’s housing market: is it a cooling? Is it a crash?

Related:  iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF (EWC), CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 29, 2012

Pieces Of Junk

US airlines are the most pathetic anti-deluvian pieces of junks ever flying. & they use octogenarians that should have retired 20 years ago. - in Twitter 

Related tickers: US Airways Group, Inc.(NYSE:LCC), Delta Air Lines, Inc.(NYSE:DAL), JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU), AMR Corporation (PINK:AAMRQ)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 22, 2012

The Overall Impact Of A Weaker US Dollar On The Trade Balance Is Close To Zero

Perhaps most important, a weaker dollar’s effect on the trade balance, and thus on growth, is limited by two factors.

First, a weaker dollar is associated with a higher dollar price for commodities, which implies a drag on the trade balance, because the US is a net commodity-importing country.

Second, any improvement in GDP derived from stronger exports leads to an increase in imports. Empirical studies estimate that the overall impact of a weaker US dollar on the trade balance is close to zero. - in LiveMint

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 19, 2012

The Impact Of A Weaker US Dollar On The Trade Balance

Empirical studies estimate that the overall impact of a weaker US dollar on the trade balance is close to zero. - in EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 18, 2012

Video: Pilosio Award 2012 Speech



Speech by the famous economist Nouriel Roubini International Award Pilosio "Building Peace" 2012.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 10, 2012

IMF Downgrades 2013 Growth Outlook

IMF downgrades 2013 growth outlook, warns about risk of a global recession and worries about negative effects of excessive fiscal austerity. - in Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 8, 2012

These Are The Most Interesting Times

"I love what I do, and for me it's not work. I get a lot out of what I do intellectually. These are the most interesting times that anyone involved in macro could think of - maybe too interesting. - in Foreign Policy 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 7, 2012

What To Do When Arriving A Country

When I arrive in a country, the first thing I do is ask the cab driver how the economy is doing or what he thinks about their government. When I’m in the hotel, I ask the same questions, or I walk around and go to the local shopping center. You know, I try to get a sense. And when I’m in a country I also try to talk to people who are not necessarily purely the elite.

I think it’s true that the 1 percent or the elite are living in a world of, maybe, excessive privilege, and they don’t fully realize how much pain and suffering, how much anxiety exists out there. I think there are lots of things that we have to figure out to make sure that we don’t have a social and political backlash. - in Business Insider 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 5, 2012

Thunderously Right For So Thunderously Long

"Roubini has been so thunderously right for so thunderously long as to defy thunderous description." - Tom Keene, Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 4, 2012

Germany`s Economic Outlook

There was a divergence between economic growth of the core and the peripheral of the euro zone. Germany used to do better, but the latest data suggests a slowdown in German economic growth. It is still positive, but there are two shocks.

There are two main markets for exports, China and Asia, are slowing down. Secondly, the recession of the periphery of the euro zone is taking a toll because after all, most of the exports of Germany go to the rest of the euro zone. There is a significant slowdown of growth, even in Germany. - in Bloomberg

Related: Dax Index, EuroStoxx 50 Index

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

We Are In The Process Of Very Painful Deleveraging In Advanced Economies

We’re in the process of very painful deleveraging in advanced economies. We started the crisis with too much private debt and now we have too much public debt and deficits. Research suggests that usually a deleveraging cycle can last up to a decade.

The crisis in 2007, now we are in 2012 and therefore the process of deleveraging in the United States, in the euro zone, in the U.K. and Japan is barely mid-stream. In the U.S. we postponed the deleveraging of the public sector and the housing sector, and therefore, economic growth will is anemic. Therefore, the only thing we can do, given we don’t have the fiscal tool, is use the monetary policy. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 3, 2012

QE3 Effects

In spite of the Fed’s impressive commitment to aggressive monetary easing, its effects on the real economy and on U.S. equities could end up being smaller and more fleeting than the effects of previous QE episodes. - in RGE

 Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 2, 2012

China: A Hard Landing Becomes More Likely In 2013

But a hard landing becomes more likely in 2013, as the stimulus fades, nonperforming loans rise, the investment bust accelerates, and the problem of rolling over the debts of provincial governments and their special investment vehicles can no longer be papered over. - in Irish Times

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oct 1, 2012

Excessive Investment, Financial Crisis & Slow Growth

All historical episodes of excessive investment – including East Asia in the 1990s – have ended with a financial crisis and/ or a long period of slow growth. - in HSBC Global Banking and Markets

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

US Economy: Growth Slowing To A Crawl

Chicago ISM & regional survey suggest a weakening of the the ISM & manufacturing at the national level. US growth in H2 slowing to a crawl. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 28, 2012

Hollande Was Not Elected To Pursue Austerity

Hollande was not elected by his base to pursue austerity and reforms, but rather to boost growth and hiring in the public sector. - in Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 27, 2012

Canadian Economy Outlook

Canadian economy to grow at at sluggish 1.7% rate this year and even lower next year. - in Twitter

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Canada Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWC), CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE:FXC)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 26, 2012

Ineffective Governments With Weak Leadership Are At The Root Of The Problem

Ineffective governments with weak leadership are at the root of the problem. In democracies, repeated elections lead to short-term policy choices. - in NYU Stern

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 25, 2012

Indonesia Should Be A Member Of The BRICs

As I wrote 2 years ago Indonesia deserves more than Russia to be a member of the BRICs. Stable democracy, strong growth, sound macro policy. - in Twitter

Related: Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IDX) 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Europe: The Train Wreck May Have Only Been Delayed

If output keeps on contracting, the “Plan A” of buying time for adjustment via large-scale provision of official financing — now mostly via the ECB — is bound to fail. - in RGE

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 24, 2012

How Worried The Fed Is About US Growth And The Risks From The Fiscal Cliff

Kocherlakota converts from hawk to dove. It signal how worried the Fed is about US growth and the risks from the fiscal cliff. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 23, 2012

Olympics Were A Net Negative For Business

Olympic Games were a net negative for business. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 21, 2012

Eurozone PMI`s Are Back To Crisis Years

Eurozone PMI`s back to crisis years (2008-2009) levels. - in Twitter
















Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 20, 2012

Eurozone Recession Getting Worse

Eurozone recession is getting deeper and worse. - in Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

European Economic Outlook

Based on PMIs, Italy's recession is deepening, France is entering a contraction while Germany's sharp growth slowdown is modestly improving. - in Twitter 

Related:  iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), ishares germany ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 19, 2012

Avoidance Of Tough Fiscal Choices Until The Bond Vigilantes Eventually Wake Up

Given America's political polarization and policy gridlock, we can expect more fights on the budget and the debt ceiling, another rating downgrade, and no agreement on a path toward medium-term fiscal consolidation and sustainability - regardless of whether President Barack Obama is reelected in November.

On the contrary, we should expect agreement only on the path of least political resistance: Avoidance of tough fiscal choices until the bond vigilantes eventually wake up, spike long rates, and force fiscal adjustment on the political system. - in Today Online

Related ETFs: iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasuries Bond ETF (IEF), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasuries ETF (TBT) 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 17, 2012

Germany Has Outsourced The Bailouts To The ECB

Small wonder, then, that Germany, politically unable to vote on more bailout resources, has outsourced that job to the ECB, the only institution that can bypass democratically elected parliaments. But, again, liquidity provision alone – without policies to restore growth soon – would merely delay, not prevent, the breakup of the monetary union, ultimately taking down the economic/trade union and leading to the destruction of the single market. - in The Guardian

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 15, 2012

Geopolitical Risks In The Middle East

The major global powers are still trying negotiations and sanctions to induce Iran to abandon its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. But Iran is playing for time and hoping to reach a zone of immunity.

By 2013, an Israel that – rightly or wrongly – perceives Iran’s nuclear program to be an existential threat, and/or the US, which has rejected containment of a nuclear Iran, may decide to strike, leading to a war and a massive spike in oil prices. - in Project Syndicate

Related: United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 14, 2012

China: Hard Economic Landing Looks Increasingly Likely

In China, a hard economic landing looks increasingly likely as the investment bubble deflates and net exports shrink. Meanwhile, the reforms necessary to reduce savings and increase private consumption are being delayed. - in Project Syndicate

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 13, 2012

Austerity Fatigue

Austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery is increasingly clashing with bailout fatigue in the core. - in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Markets That Rise On Both Good And Bad News Are Not Stable Markets

Financial markets have rallied since July on the hope that the global economic and geopolitical outlook will not worsen, or, if it does, that central banks stand ready to backstop economies and markets with additional rounds of liquidity provision and quantitative easing.

So, not only has good – or better-than-expected – economic news boosted the markets, but even bad news has been good news, because it increases the probability that central-banking firefighters like US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will douse the markets with buckets of cash.

But markets that rise on both good and bad news are not stable markets. “Risk-off” episodes, in which investor sentiment sours, are likely to return if economic news worsens and confidence in policymakers’ effectiveness drops. - in Project Syndicate

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 11, 2012

Q4: Growth Will Not Even Be 2 Percent

By the fourth quarter, with the fiscal cliff coming and firms becoming more cautious, capital spending is slowing down and growth will be not even 2 percent. - in Business Insider 

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There’s Not Going To Be Any Significant Reduction In The Unemployment Rate

Job creation might be around 100,000 or slightly higher for the next few months, but there’s not going to be any significant reduction in the unemployment rate. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 10, 2012

Video: ECB Has Only Bought Time



ECB Has Only Bought Time : Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC, ECB bond buying will only buy time because the recession in the euro zone is getting deeper and how you stabilize the banking system and restore economic growth is still a very open question.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 4, 2012

US Economy: Significant Weakness Ahead

A quite lousy ISM manufacturing report with the inventory to new orders ratio showing significant weakness ahead. - in Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Sep 2, 2012

Eurozone: Just Consider What Must Be Overcome

Just consider what must be overcome:

- economic divergence and deepening recessions;
- irreversible balkanization of the banking system and financial markets;
- unsustainable debt burdens for public and private agents;
- daunting growth and balance-sheet costs in countries that pursue internal devaluation and deflation to restore competitiveness;
- asymmetrical adjustment, with moral-hazard risks in the core and insufficient financing in the periphery fueling incompatible political dynamics;
- fickle and impatient markets and investors;
- austerity fatigue in the periphery and bailout fatigue in the core;
- the absence of conditions for an optimal currency area; and serious difficulties in achieving full fiscal, banking, economic, and political union.

- in Project Syndicate 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 31, 2012

Italy: Recession Deepens

Italian spreads defrosting as Merkel supports Monti and ECB ready to intervene. But Italy's recession deepens. - in Twitter 

Related: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 29, 2012

Whether The Eurozone Is Viable Or Not Remains An Open Question

Whether the eurozone is viable or not remains an open question. But what if a breakup can only be postponed, not avoided? If so, delaying the inevitable would merely make the endgame worse – much worse. - in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 27, 2012

The Only Thing That Can Lift Markets

The only thing that can lift markets is Fireman Ben's liquidity hose in Jackson Hole and expectations of more QE by Bank of England/ ECB/ Bank of Japan/ PBoC/ other Central Banks. - in Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 25, 2012

America`s Growth Will Be Below Trend At Best

The American economic recovery will remain, at best, below-trend for many years to come. - in Hercules Patch

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 24, 2012

Republicans Eye Return To Gold Standard

Republicans eye return to gold standard and to another Great Depression as the gold standard contributed to the 1st one. - in Twitter

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 23, 2012

Is The Eurozone Viable?

Whether the eurozone is viable or not remains an open question. - in Economonitor

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Global Growth: Eurozone, UK, China, EMs And The US

Eurozone and UK deeper in recession, China's and other Emerging Markets growth stalling, US recovery faltering (regional ISM, Unemployment benefits, capex, fiscal cliff) - in Twitter

Related Instruments: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 22, 2012

In Or Out?

Europe should choose whether it wants Greece in or out. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

We Have To Reduce Our Budget Deficit

Unfortunately, the U.S. political system is in a gridlock. And the reality is that we have to reduce our budget deficit, and the way to do it is going to be a combination of reforming Social Security and Medicare on one side, but also gradually increasing the tax burden because right now it's very low, especially on those who can pay.

And while we have to do fiscal austerity, if we do too much of it, next year or in the next couple of years, the risk, like in the eurozone, is that we end up into another recession because austerity, however necessary, in the short run has a negative effect on economic growth." - in Money News 

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 21, 2012

The Underlying Economic Forces Are Partially Independent Of Policy Choices

The underlying economic forces are partially independent of policy choices. I don’t think that if [John] McCain had been elected, the economy would be any better than it is today. Maybe even worse. And therefore, I think that once you have a crisis, once you have too much debt or once you have painful deleveraging, that cost of deleveraging has to occur over a period of many years, and economic policy is not going to make much of a difference. - in CRF Blog 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

A Radical Plan For Spain

Rajoy must enact a radical plan for Spain. - in Twitter 

Related: iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF) (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 17, 2012

Empire State & Philly Fed Surveys Remain Depressed

Empire State and Philly Fed surveys remain depressed bucking the better signals from industrial production. Q3 improvement may be head fake. - from Nouriel`s personal twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 16, 2012

Is The Eurozone Viable?

Whether the eurozone is viable or not remains an open question. But what if a breakup can only be postponed, not avoided? If so, delaying the inevitable would merely make the endgame worse – much worse. - in Social Europe Journal 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 15, 2012

Eurozone: Betting The House To Save The Garage

Of course, a breakup now would be very costly, requiring an international debt conference to restructure the periphery’s debts and the core’s claims. But breaking up earlier could allow the survival of the single market and of the EU. A futile attempt to avoid a breakup for a year or two – after wasting trillions of euros in additional official financing by the core – would mean a disorderly end, including the destruction of the single market, owing to the introduction of protectionist policies on a massive scale. So, if a breakup is unavoidable, delaying it implies much higher costs.

But politics in the eurozone does not permit consideration of an early breakup...Only time will tell whether betting the house to save the garage was the right move. - in Business Insider 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 14, 2012

The Olympics Were An Economic Failure

The Olympics are an economic failure as London is totally empty: hotels, restaurants, streets. They scared all off with crowd excess warnings.

By scaring everyone to stay out of London with warnings about too many people coming here it turns that London is totally empty, a zombie city. - in Huffington Post

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 13, 2012

When I Arrive In A Country, I Ask The Cab Driver How The Economy Is Doing

When I arrive in a country, the first thing I do is ask the cab driver how the economy is doing or what he thinks about their government. When I’m in the hotel, I ask the same questions, or I walk around and go to the local shopping center. You know, I try to get a sense. And when I’m in a country I also try to talk to people who are not necessarily purely the elite.

I think it’s true that the 1 Percent or the elite are living in a world of, maybe, excessive privilege, and they don’t fully realize how much pain and suffering, how much anxiety exists out there. I think there are lots of things that we have to figure out to make sure that we don’t have a social and political backlash. - in Business Insider 

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 12, 2012

My Typical Day

I travel about two-thirds to three-quarters of my time, mostly abroad. When I travel I meet, first, clients of RGE. Second, prospects and people who may be interested in our work. Wherever I go, I tend to talk to policymakers in that particular country. I find time to think, to read, to write. I meet people in the financial and business sector. I talk with other intellectuals and economists. I do media wherever I go.

Starting with a business breakfast or a business lunch or business dinner, I work nonstop. And often when I come back to the hotel, I have hundreds of e-mails to go through, and I write reports...you name it.

But you know, I also try to make time to see friends. I love the visual and the performing arts, so museums, galleries, theater, music. I’m in touch all the time with my team wherever I am. We have a team in New York, in London, and in New Delhi. We have a 24/7 operation. - in Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 8, 2012

Greece: Grexit By 2013

Draconian Troika program for Greece ensures deepening depression that will trigger Grexit by 2013. This government will collapse next year. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 2, 2012

The Gravity Of Weaker Growth

The gravity of weaker growth will most likely overcome the levitational effect on equity prices from more quantitative easing, particularly given that equity valuations today are not as depressed as they were in 2009 or 2010. - in Newsmax.com

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Aug 1, 2012

New QE Will Not Boost Spending

The U.S. Federal Reserve will carry out more quantitative easing this year, but it will be ineffective; long-term interest rates are already too low, and lowering them further would not boost spending. - in The Examiner.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 31, 2012

US Economy: First-Half Growth

The first-half growth rate looks set to come in closer to 1.5 percent at best, even below 2011's dismal 1.7 percent. - in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 27, 2012

US GDP Grew At A Pathetically Mediocre Rate

GDP grew at a pathetically mediocre rate of 1.5% in Q2; final sales even worse at 1.2%. Q3 now looks worse than Q2. US is at stall speed. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter page 


Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 25, 2012

UPS Missed Earnings. Fedex Will Probably Miss Too.

UPS missed too. I bet Fedex misses too on global growth slump and stall.  - in Roubini`s Official Twitter


Related: Fedex (FDX), United Parcel Service, Inc.(NYSE:UPS)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 24, 2012

The Consensus Got It Wrong

Even this year, the consensus got it wrong, expecting a recovery to annual GDP growth of better than 3 percent.

And now, after getting the first half of 2012 wrong, many are repeating the fairy tale that a combination of lower oil prices, rising auto sales, recovering house prices, and a resurgence of U.S. manufacturing will boost growth in the second half of the year and fuel above-potential growth by 2013. - in Yahoo Finance

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Consensus Has Been That The US Economy Was On The Verge Of A Self-Sustaining Recovery

For the last three years, the consensus has been that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a robust and self-sustaining recovery that would restore above-potential growth. - in Project Syndicate

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 23, 2012

The Endgame Of Eurozone Is Starting

Endgame of EZ is starting: Greece will exit by 2013 while Italy & Spain will need a Troika program after half-baked attempts by ECB to help. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 20, 2012

Growth In Earnings And Profits Is Now Running Out Of Steam

The gravity of weaker growth will most likely overcome the levitational effect on equity prices from more quantitative easing, particularly given that equity valuations today are not as depressed as they were in 2009 or 2010. Indeed, growth in earnings and profits is now running out of steam, as the effect of weak demand on top-line revenues takes a toll on bottom-line margins and profitability. - in Project Syndicate

Related ETFs: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 19, 2012

Reuters Video Interview, July 2012



Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economist nicknamed "Doctor Doom" for his prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, believes that events are again turning against the global economy. (July 18, 2012)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 18, 2012

Federal Reserve Unconventional Policy Options

Unconventional policy could include targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric. Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities." - in Reuters

Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

People Are Being Cheered By More QE

There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth. - in Business Insider 

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 17, 2012

Consumer Confidence In A Funk As Job Market Falters

Retail sales fell in June even more than in May. Consumer confidence in a funk as job market falters. US headed to stall speed even before cliff. - in MoneyNews.com

Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 16, 2012

US Economy At Stall Speed

Q3 growth could be well below 1 percent given June sales report and unintended inventory build up. US at stall speed. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter 

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Inflation & Deflation Risks

Indeed inflation expectations are very low: rather greater risk of deflation. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 14, 2012

Emerging Markets Are Slowing Down

The other emerging markets are all sharply slowing down in terms of growth–the BRICs, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and also Mexico, Turkey. Partly it’s because there’s a recession in the Eurozone and UK, partly it’s because they’re not doing their reforms. - in Bloomberg

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 13, 2012

US Economy Close To Stall Speed

The US looks close to stall-speed and a recession, given the latest economic data. - in Bloomberg

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Kicking The Can Down The Road Is Going To Run Out Of Steam

By 2013, the ability of policy makers to kick the can down the road is going to run out of steam. - in The Financial Post

Related: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF), iShares Germany ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

 Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 11, 2012

Policy Easing Can Only Temporarily Lift Asset Prices

Global policy makers are running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat. Levitational force of policy easing can only temporarily lift asset prices as gravitational forces of weaker fundamentals dominate over time. - in Mercopress

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 10, 2012

Bloomberg Video: 2013 `Storm' May Surpass 2008 Crisis


Watch video here: Bloomberg Video: 2013 `Storm' May Surpass 2008 Crisis

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini discusses "greedy" bankers, the euro-zone crisis and risks facing the global economy in 2013. He speaks in Aix-en-Provence, France, with Bloomberg Television's Caroline Connan. (Source: Bloomberg)

Jul 9, 2012

The 2013 Perfect Storm

The 2013 perfect storm scenario I wrote on months ago is unfolding. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 6, 2012

US Economy: Recession Risks Rising

Another - third in a row - dismal job report. Only 80,000 jobs added in June. US economy headed to a stall speed. Recession risk rising. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 5, 2012

ECB Deposit Rates Could Go Negative In The Future

ECB brings deposit rate to 0%. But it could in the future push it to a negative rate to induce banks not to hoard excess reserves at the ECB. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jul 2, 2012

US Economy At Stall Speed

ISM index sharply fell to 49.7 last month from 53.5 in May. First time manufacturing contracted since July 2009. US economy at stall speed. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related ETFs: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM),

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 28, 2012

German Backstop Of Spanish And Italian Debt Holding The Key To Europe's Future



Nouriel Roubini , the New York University professor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about a German backstop of Spanish and Italian debt holding the key to Europe's future. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 26, 2012

Many Powerful Italian Forces Favor Return To Lira

Fixit (Finland exit) & Quitaly (Italy quitting) are likely to happen earlier than Grexit. Many powerful italian forces favor return to lira. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter 


Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 22, 2012

Monetary And Fiscal Authorities Are Running Out Of Policy Bullets

Compared with 2008-09, when policymakers had ample space to act, monetary and fiscal authorities are running out of policy bullets - or, more cynically, policy rabbits to pull out of their hats.

Monetary policy is constrained by the proximity to zero interest rates and repeated rounds of quantitative easing. Indeed, economies and markets no longer face liquidity problems, but rather credit and insolvency crises. - excerpt from A Global Perfect Storm is Brewing 


Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 21, 2012

A Self-Fulfilling Slowdown

Increasing risk aversion is leading economic agents to adopt a wait-and-see stance that makes the slowdown partly self-fulfilling. - excerpt from A Global Perfect Storm is Brewing


Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY);

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 19, 2012

US Economic Performance Is Weakening

Farther to the west, US economic performance is weakening, with first-quarter growth a miserly 1.9 per cent - well below potential. And job creation faltered in the past two months, so the US may reach stall speed by year end.

Worse, the risk of a double-dip recession next year is rising: Even if what looks like a looming US fiscal cliff turns out to be only a smaller source of drag, the likely increase in some taxes and reduction of some transfer payments will reduce growth in disposable income and consumption. - in Today Online 

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Is A Side Show

"Greece is a side show. Italy & Spain may lose market access & need Troika rescue regardless of Greek elections as Spain bank rescue botched." - in a recent Tweet

Related stocks and ETFs: iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NBG), Banco Santander ADR (STD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Euro Zone Banking System Is Becoming Balkanised

The euro zone banking system is becoming balkanised, as cross-border and inter-bank credit lines are cut off, and capital flight could turn into a full run on periphery banks if, as is likely, Greece stages a disorderly euro exit in the next few months. - in Today Online

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 18, 2012

Greece: New Government Will Fall In 6-12 Months

In 6 to 12 months ND-Pasok goverment will fall as economy will fall into a depression. Then new elections will lead Syriza to win and a Grexit to occur. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

 Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 14, 2012

Video Interview: Current Economic Crisis, Greece Exit



Latest video interview with RT.com


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 13, 2012

Greek Elections: Everything Will Depend On How Europe Reacts

Everything will depend on how Europe reacts. If the funding to Greece stopped, the country will collapse and many investors will get into panic. Then, a run on the banks in Portugal, Spain, and Italy will take place. Who pulls the plug on Greece will in turn provoke a total collapse of the euro-zone. - in AGI.it 


Related: National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NYSE:NBG), Banco Santander ADR (STD), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, UniCredit SpA (BIT:UCG), Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA(BIT:BMPS), Banco Comercial Portugues SA(ELI:BCP), Banco BPI SA (ELI:BPI), Banco Espirito Santo SA(ELI:BES)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 12, 2012

The Savings Madness Must Be Stopped

The savings madness must be stopped. Governments must lower taxes and increase wages. Europe needs growth. The German government should give every German household a 1000 euros travel voucher. However, it should only be used for holidays in crisis countries. That will help boost growth there.

In addition, everyone who buys a holiday home in a southern European state should get a tax bonus. - in Bild 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 11, 2012

What The Germans Must Understand

Germans must understand that bank recapitalization, European deposit insurance and debt mutualization are not optional Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. - in FT.com, Niall Ferguson & Nouriel Roubini

He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 6, 2012

Perfect Storm In 2013

We are concerned about the potential for a “perfect storm” in 2013: a disorderly situation in the eurozone (EZ), with a Greek exit and significant contagion to other fragile periphery members; U.S. growth that slows to stall speed as a sharp fiscal cliff looms; tensions in the Middle East between the U.S./Israel and Iran that reach a boil and trigger a spike in oil prices; a landing in China that moves from soft to hard; and a massive slowdown in other emerging markets (EMs). - in RGE 


Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM);

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jun 4, 2012

Global Slowdown

Global slowdown: EZ/UK in recession, US close to stall speed, BRICs slowing down, EMs - in Asia, Latam, Central Europe - slowing down too. - in Twitter

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 31, 2012

2013`s Fiscal Drag

The point is, all this is expiring at year end, and the hole will be $600 billion, or about 4 percent of GDP, and then we plunge into a nasty recession. Some items may be continued (if the Republicans and Democrats can agree to extend) but a realistic assessment is a fiscal drag. - USA Today 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 30, 2012

2013: Perfect Storm Scenario

2013 perfect storm scenario: EuroZone train wreck; US back to stall speed with fiscal cliff; oil price spike as Iran war; China/Emerging Mkts hard landing. - in Twitter

Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx ETF (EEM);

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Is Russia A Dynamic Emerging Market? Not A Chance.

So if its government isn’t interested in western clubs, can we classify Russia as a dynamic emerging market? Not a chance.

In China, a Communist party has engineered a complex, high-powered economic engine that has lifted the country from abject poverty to become the world’s second-largest economy. India has produced some of the world’s more innovative private sector companies. Brazil is now an increasingly self-confident democracy with a well-diversified economy and a growing international profile.

Russia, by contrast, has become an authoritarian state built on Mr Putin’s reputation as a tough guy and the export of oil, gas, other natural resources and little else. Corruption is endemic. - in Economonitor

Related: Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 29, 2012

Greece Should Leave The Eurozone

Postponing the exit after the June election with a new government committed to a variant of the same failed policies (recessionary austerity and structural reforms) will not restore growth and competitiveness. Greece is stuck in a vicious cycle of insolvency, lost competitiveness, external deficits, and ever-deepening depression.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 24, 2012

US Economic Data: Lousy Durable Goods Orders

Lousy durable goods orders; Q1 GDP growth to be revised down and Q2 starts on a weak note. - in Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 22, 2012

The Greek Euro Tragedy Is Reaching Its Final Act

The Greek euro tragedy is reaching its final act: it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone. Postponing the exit until after next month’s election with a new government committed to a variant of the same failed policies will not restore growth and competitiveness.

Greece is stuck in a vicious cycle of insolvency, lost competitiveness, external deficits and ever-deepening depression. The only way to stop it is to begin an orderly default and exit, co-ordinated and financed by the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union, and the International Monetary Fund (the Troika), that minimises collateral damage to Greece and the rest of the euro zone. - in Business Day 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 21, 2012

Emerging Markets, Long Term & Short Term Prospects

So if you are willing to invest for the long run, yes on emerging markets. But if you're thinking about what's going to happen in the next few months, no country is an island.

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The European Recession Is Getting Worse

The European recession is getting worse. There's fiscal austerity that, in the short run, makes the recession worse. Second, the value of the euro is too strong for the countries on the periphery that have lost competitiveness. Third, you have a credit crunch because the periphery banks don't have enough capital, and they will be forced to cut credit. Fourth, you have the effects of high oil prices, and Europe depends 100 percent on oil imports. - in USA Today

Related: Ishares Germany ETF (EWG),  iShares MSCI Spain Index (ETF), 


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Global Growth Is Slowing

There is an overall slowdown of global growth. Europe is in a recession in the periphery countries, and it's getting worse. There is a double-dip recession in the United Kingdom, sluggish growth in Japan, and the data from many emerging markets are also suggesting a slowdown in China, Russia, Brazil, India and places like Turkey, Mexico and South Africa. - in USA Today 


Related ETFs: Market Vector Russia ETF Trust(RSX), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), iShares MSCI South Africa Index ETF (EZA), iShares MSCI Turkey Index Fund (TUR)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 17, 2012

Gold Isn`t Rallying Despite The Risk Off Sentiment

Gold bugs are hiding deep in their gold caves pondering why gold isn’t rallying in spite of the sharp spike in risk-off sentiment. - in Coin Week

Related: SPDR Gold Trut ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 15, 2012

Global Economy Outlook

You put it together — the euro zone troubles with the US slowdown, China...you could have a train wreck next year. - in the opening day of the Skybridge Alternative Conference

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

If Contagion Reaches Spain And Italy, The Eurozone Will Breakup

If a small group of countries, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, restructure and exit, the Eurozone survives. But if down the line the problems of debt, growth and sustainability spread to Spain and Italy, they lose market access, the bailout doesn’t work, they have to restructure the debt and eventually they might have to exit, that would be a breakup of the Eurozone. - in Forbes 


Related: IShares Italy (EWI), Ishares Spain (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 8, 2012

The Only Option To Restore Growth In Greece

Only option to restore growth in Greece: a negotiated exit from the Euro with Troika support to avoid overshooting and collateral damage. - in Roubini`s Official  Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 7, 2012

The US Economy May Be Going Back To Stall Speed

The optimists today are saying the U.S. is on the cusp of a self-sustaining recovery. The data suggest that we’ll be lucky if this year we’re going to grow barely 2 per cent. - in Globe And Mail 

Related, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Elections: Greece Much More Serious Than France

Result of Greek elections much more serious than the French one, the former leads to chaos while Hollande will turn out to be a moderate. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 5, 2012

Employment Report: US Recovery Is Anemic And Fragile

Employment report confirms that the U.S. recovery is anemic and fragile. Details are also weak as earnings and workweek are flat. - in a recent tweet, Roubini`s Official Twitter 


Related, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY);

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 4, 2012

What Is The ECB Waiting For?

Eurozone service PMIs confirm that the region's recession is becoming deeper. What is the ECB waitin for? - in a recent tweet 

Related: interest rates, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Crisis: Some If`s

If something disorderly, either disorderly default and/or disorderly breakup were to occur in the eurozone, certainly financial contagion would be significant. - in CNN 


Related: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 3, 2012

Geopolitical Tensions

There’s still a risk that there will be a military confrontation between Israel, and the US, and Iran. - in the Milken Conference 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Euro Currency: A Breakup Is Going To Be A Mess

If you can't either devalue the euro to a real depreciation, inflate yourself, or grow yourself out of this problem, or deflation is not going work, the only solution is going to be to give up the euro and go to a national currency.

But if enough of those countries do that, the collateral damage in terms of losses to the creditors is going to be massive. So a breakup is going to be a mess. - in CNN


Related: iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), EURUSD forex cross 

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Arab Spring Will Become An Arab Winter

"The entire Middle East is a mess, and it's not just Iran and Israel. The Arab spring will become an Arab winter." - in CNN


Related: Oil Futures, United States Oil Fund (USO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

May 2, 2012

China`s PMI: Still Below The Critical 50 Level

China HSBC Manufacturing PMI 49.3 in April Vs Preliminary 49.1. Up but still below the critical 50 level. - in a recent Twitter 


Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)  

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 23, 2012

Eurozone: The Only Hope Of Restoring Growth Is...

After all, with painful de-leveraging - spending less and saving more to reduce debts - depressing domestic private and public demand, the only hope of restoring growth is an improvement in the trade balance, which requires a much weaker euro. - in Today Online Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 19, 2012

The Labor Market Is Weakening

Rise in initial unemployment claims plus weak March payrolls confirms that labor market/economy is weakening. (Source: Roubini`s Twitter) Related, iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Eurozone Crisis Countries: Will Be Forced To Postpone Austerity

EZ crisis countries will all be forced to postpone some of the fiscal austerity as front-loading it will make their serious recession worse. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter Related, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI) Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 18, 2012

China Needs To Grow Private Consumption

China, which may face a hard landing in a few years, needs to grow private consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product. - in a conference - Santiago, Chile

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 17, 2012

Chile: Fundamentals, Risks

Chile has been growing strongly - 6 percent - for the last 2 years and has strong macro-fiscal-financial fundamentals.

Chile's external risks are:
- a China slowdown & effect on copper price;
- the Eurozone crisis;
- the high price of oil
- a possible US slowdown

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 16, 2012

Eurozone: No Growth Strategy

The trouble is that the euro zone has an austerity strategy but no growth strategy. - in Transitions Online

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Chinese Slowdown

Chinese growth measured as q/q SAAR - rather than y/y as reported - was most likely only 6.9%, a very sharp slowdown - (Source: Nouriel`s Twitter)

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

EU: Without A Much Easier Monetary Policy...

Without a much easier monetary policy and a less front-loaded mode of fiscal austerity, the euro will not weaken, external competitiveness will not be restored, and the recession will deepen. And, without resumption of growth – not years down the line, but in 2012 – the stock and flow imbalances will become even more unsustainable. More eurozone countries will be forced to restructure their debts, and eventually some will decide to exit the monetary union. - in www.sundayszaman.com

Related, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 15, 2012

Eurozone Periphery: The Credit Crunch Is Intensifying

The credit crunch in the eurozone periphery is intensifying: thanks to the ECB long-term cheap loans, banks there don't have a liquidity problem now, but they do have a massive capital shortage. - in Project Syndicate

Related, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 14, 2012

Eurozone: The Recession Will Worsen Throughout This Year

Interest-rate spreads for Italy and Spain are widening again, while borrowing costs for Portugal and Greece remained high all along. And, inevitably, the recession on the eurozone's periphery is deepening and moving to the core, namely France and Germany. Indeed, the recession will worsen throughout this year, for many reasons. - in The Guardian

Related, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 13, 2012

Eurozone's Periphery: The Euro Would Have To Fall To Parity With The US Dollar To Restore Competitiveness

While ├╝ber-competitive Germany can withstand a euro at – or even stronger than – $1.30, for the eurozone's periphery, where unit labor costs rose 30-40 percent during the last decade, the value of the exchange rate would have to fall to parity with the US dollar to restore competitiveness and external balance. - in The Guardian Blog

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 11, 2012

Spain's Industrial Production Is Free Falling

Spain's industrial production is free falling and the draconian fiscal austerity will make its recession much worse...

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related, IBEX 35 Index, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 9, 2012

Views On The Unemployment Rate Drop

The unemployment rate fell only because many discouraged workers who cant find jobs left the labor force. The participation rate fell! - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 4, 2012

Euro Zone Needs A Divorce

Like a marriage that no longer works, the euro zone should accept its fate, split up and get divorced, according to Roubini Global Economics. - in MoneyControl

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 3, 2012

The Periphery Needs To Have The Euro Closer To Parity With The U.S. Dollar

"The euro zone needs a real depreciation in the periphery to achieve the restoration of growth, external balance and competitiveness.

The periphery needs to have the euro closer to parity with the U.S. dollar." - in a conference in Como, Italy

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Apr 2, 2012

Euro Needs to Be Weaker


Latest CNBC video interview.

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.
"I still see a very anemic U.S. economic recovery." - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 31, 2012

Austerity: Debt`s Vicious Circle

There’s this vicious circle with the deficit that doing austerity makes the recession worse. Without growth, the socio-political backlash will become overwhelming for some governments. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 30, 2012

Middle East: Tensions Are Rising

Even short of a military confrontation, the war of words is going up and the covert war is going up. These tensions are going to rise. The entire Middle East is a source of tensions that are geopolitical for the global economy. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 28, 2012

Brazil: Structural Reforms Needed

Brazil growth only 3 percent this year (year-on-year) but rising from 2 percent in H1 to 4 percent (potential) in H2. Structural reforms needed.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related, iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 27, 2012

Okun`s Law

Bernanke's take on Okun's Law is same I gave: over-firing in crisis led now to over-hiring. But if growth remains low, job growth will slow. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 24, 2012

Gold Standard Systems: Bernanke Got It Totally Right

Bernanke got it totally right "Fed`s Bernanke: Gold standard systems didn`t work before, won`t work now" - in Twitter

Related, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 23, 2012

Fedex (FDX) Is A Bellwether Of Global Growth

Fedex is a bellwether of global growth: "FedEx Pares Global GDP Outlook as Slowdown Damps Profit Forecast"- Bloomberg

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related, Fedex (FDX), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 21, 2012

China Risks A Hard Landing Unless...

In my speech at the CDF in Beijing I argued that China risks a hard landing unless it implements rapidly reforms that increase consumption. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 16, 2012

The Next Few Weeks Could Bring A Reduction In Geopolitical Tensions

The next few weeks could bring a reduction in tensions, as the US, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia go through another round of attempts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons or the capacity to produce them. But if this attempt fails, as is likely, one cannot rule out that, by summer, Israel and the US agree that, sooner rather than later, force will have be used to stop Iran. - in Economonitor

Related, United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 15, 2012

The Risk Of A Spike In Oil Prices

No risk is more serious than that posed by a further spike in oil prices.

The reason is fear. Not only are oil supplies plentiful, but demand in the US and Europe has been lower, owing to decreasing car use in the last few years and weak or negative GDP growth in the US and the eurozone. Simply put, increasing worry about a military conflict between Israel and Iran has created a “fear premium.”

If the drums of war (between Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance) grow louder this summer, oil prices could rise in a way that will most likely cause a US and global growth slowdown, and even an outright recession if a military conflict erupts and sends oil prices soaring.

Oil is already well above $100/barrel, despite weak economic growth in advanced countries and many emerging markets. The fear premium might push prices significantly higher, even if no military conflict ultimately takes place, and could trigger a global recession if one does. - in Business Insider

Related, United States Oil fund ETF (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Crude Oil Futures, Transocean (RIG), ConocoPhillips (COP)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 14, 2012

If Iran Exports Go To Zero, Oil Could Go To 200 USD

If there's an effect on the supply of oil and gas from the Gulf, and production and exports from Iran go for a while to zero, oil could go to $170, $180, $200 a barrel. - in Foreign Policy magazine

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Transocean (RIG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 13, 2012

Portugal Will Be Next to Default, Greece to Leave Euro

Greece will be the first country to exit the eurozone, not this year but maybe later next year, but in order to restore growth, competitiveness and external balance they need the real depreciation.

In terms of debt restructuring after Greece, I think Portugal is the more likely that is going to require a debt restructuring and maybe eventually an exit like Greece. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 12, 2012

3 Temporary Factors Impacting Growth

Merrill Lynch (says), recent good economic data depends on 3 factors: weather, delay in foreclosure process and lagged impact of lower gasoline prices.

Those 3 positive factors are temporary as weather effect on jobs will fade out in spring, foreclosures will increase and oil price is rising. - Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 7, 2012

The Biggest Risk For The Global Economy Right Now

Biggest tail risk to the global economy now is a military conflict between Israel and Iran that sharply spikes oil prices. - in Nouriel`s Twitter

Related, United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return(OIL), Crude Oil Futures

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Oil Price Spike Could Push World Economy Into Stagflation

Excerpt from BBC blog -- "Nouriel Roubini thinks the oil price spike out of the Arab revolts could push the world economy into stagflation. There is also the risk that currency war breaks out into open trade war." - in NYU Stern website

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 6, 2012

Chinese Growth

China's new official growth forecast for 2012 - 7.5 percent - matches RGE's below consensus forecast of 7.4 percent. We'll update ours based on data flow. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 3, 2012

US Economic Data Round Up

Consumption flat, ISM down, construction spending down, durable goods order/capex down. Apart from better initial claims US growth is slower. - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Mar 1, 2012

Q1 U.S. Growth Can Be Very Weak

Real consumption spending has been flat for 3 months now including January while capex spending fell. So Q1 U.S. growth could be very weak. - in Nouriel`s Official Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 24, 2012

More Risks To The Global Economy

"One is sharply rising oil prices." - Nouriel Roubini in a recent Tweet

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO), Crude Oil Futures, energy stocks

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 23, 2012

Global Economic Outlook: There Will Be A Significant Slowdown In China This Year

In the UK there is recession, even the US is not doing great, in India there’s a slowdown and they’re worried about that. In China, exports, infrastructure investment, real estate is slowing down, so there’ll be a significant slowdown in China this year. - in The Telegraph

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 22, 2012

Greece: There Will Be A Violent Reaction, A Revolution

I think you are deluding yourself to think that the alternative is going to be to stay in the euro, stay in a depression and eventually it will lead to so much social and political stability...there will be a violent reaction to it, a revolution. - Nouriel Roubini during a conference in Athens yesterday

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 20, 2012

There Are Many Things That Could Go Wrong In The Middle East

In other words, there are many things that could go wrong in the Middle East, any combination of which might stoke fear in markets and lead to much higher oil prices. Despite weak economic growth in advanced economies and a slowdown in many emerging markets, oil is already at around $100 per barrel. But the fear premium could push it significantly higher, with predictably negative effects on the global economy. - in Project Syndicate

Related, Crude Oil Futures, United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM),

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 16, 2012

Chinese Residential Investment And Commercial Real-Estate Activity Are Slowing Sharply

Chinese residential investment and commercial real-estate activity are slowing sharply as home prices start to fall. Infrastructure investment is down as well, with many high-speed railway projects on hold and local governments and special-purpose vehicles struggling to obtain financing amid tightening credit conditions and lower revenues from land sales. - in Project-Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 15, 2012

Brazil: Signs Of An Economic Slowdown

Interesting times in Brazil as there are signs of an economic slowdown as global tail risks loom.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related, iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 14, 2012

Focusing On Economic Fundamentals

As the market fixates on the additional liquidity provided by the ECB and other central banks, I want to return the focus to economic fundamentals, for which the outlook remains fragile. - in RGE

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 13, 2012

Many Advanced Economies Are Double Dipping

Japan joins Eurozone and the UK in experiencing a contracting GDP in Q4 of 2011. Many advanced economies double dipping.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related, iShares MSCI Japan Index ETF (EWJ), Nikkei 225 Index;

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 11, 2012

Mining & Resources Sector Becoming Less Competitive

An already oligopolistic and highly concentrated industry (mining/resources) will become even less competitive with the Glencore-Xstrata deal. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), Vale ADR (VALE), Rio Tinto plc ADR (RIO)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 9, 2012

ECB: A Rate Cut Today Would Be Warranted

ECB refi rate back to its 1 percent level before the mistaken 2011 rate hike. Given the severe Euro Zone recession a rate cut today would be warranted.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 8, 2012

China: A Sign Of Hard Landing?

China's electricity consumption fell by 7.5 percent in January, a signal that industrial production may have sharply slowed. A sign of hard landing?

(Source: Nouriel`s Official Twitter)

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 7, 2012

A Macro Global View Is Critical For Asset Managers

Anybody who does any asset management needs to know and understand the macro and top-down – the linkages across countries and not just individual countries. You need to know what happens in Greece can affect the global economy and financial market. I think a macro global view is critical (for hedge funds). - in Investment Europe

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 6, 2012

Russia: The Middle Class Is Tired Of Corruption, Authoritarianism

First large scale opposition demonstrations today in Moscow: the middle class is tired of corruption, authoritarianism and lack of reforms. - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Related, Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 4, 2012

The Super Rich Spend Little Of Their Incremental Income

The super rich spend little of their incremental income, so we have a problem of aggregate demand, and that hurts the economy. - in The Nation

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 2, 2012

Capitalism Creates Obstacles To Its Own Advancement

Marx was right; capitalism creates obstacles to its own advancement. - in The Nation

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Feb 1, 2012

There Is A Reasonable Likelihood Of Further Monetary Easing

One of my key takeaways from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and a day in Frankfurt, Germany, spent meeting senior ECB officials is that there is a reasonable likelihood of further monetary easing — and liquidity firewalls - around the world given the existence of fiscal drag, with austerity and downside growth risks. - in RGE

Related, iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 31, 2012

It`s A Very Delicate Global Economy

We live in a world where there is still a huge amount of economic and financial fragility. There is a huge amount of uncertainty — macro, financial, fiscal, sovereign, banking, regulatory, taxation — and there is also geopolitical and political and policy uncertainty.

There are lots of sources of uncertainty from the eurozone, from the Middle East, from the fact that the U.S. is not tackling its own fiscal problem, from the fact that Chinese growth is unbalanced and unsustainable, relying too much on exports and fixed investments and high savings, and not enough on consumption. So it's a very delicate global economy. - in a AP interview

Related, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 30, 2012

A G-20 Or G-Zero World?

This doesn't look like a G20 world; it looks like a G-Zero world. There is disagreement. There is no leadership. In a world where we have the rise of many powers, the United States cannot impose its will. - in Public Service Europe

Related, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

The Euro Zone Is A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

The euro zone is a slow-motion train wreck. Not only Greece, other countries as well are insolvent.

There`s a 50 percent probability that over the next three to five years the euro zone will break up. - in Business Week

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 29, 2012

China: Growth Is Slowing

Export growth is slowing. If they don't do something - stimulus in monetary and fiscal credit - the risk is that the growth will slow down well below 8 per cent. - in Sydney Morning Herald

Related, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 28, 2012

Europe: The Policy Response Is Making The Recession Worse

"The policy response is making the recession worse. What Europe needs is less austerity and more growth." - in The Guardian

Related, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 27, 2012

US 4th Quarter Growth Was Lower Than Forecasts, Likely To Be Revised Even Lower.

US Q4 growth at 2.8 percent lower than optimistic forecasts of 3.5 percent. Also likely to be revised down once better data on small firms/shops are out.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related ETFs, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 26, 2012

Europe Needs Massive Monetary Easing

Europe needs massive monetary easing to get out of its debt crisis. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Greece Won`t Be The Last Country To Restructure Its Debt

Greece is going to be the first country to restructure its debt, I don't think it's going to be the last one. - in the WEF, Davos

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 25, 2012

Eurozone Needs Less Austerity And More Growth

“There’s a severe recession in the periphery of the euro zone. Less austerity, more growth, that’s what the euro zone needs today.” - in CNBC

Related, iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)


Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 24, 2012

I Don`t Own A Car, Boat Or Plane

No car, no boat, no plane. In my free time, I wear blue jeans. I love culture, the visual arts, literature. My only conspicuous consumption is contemporary art, but I usually buy young artists, even before they have gallery representation. I go to their studios. It's a passion, not an investment. - in Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 23, 2012

Problems Facing The Global Economy

Most problems facing the global economy are not temporary or random. - in Forbes.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Jan 22, 2012

Tail Risks In The Global Economy

Last year was a year of risk, volatility, uncertainty and surprises and the question is, ‘Are they going to happen again?’

If you think about all these tail risks about the global economy, the reality is many of them are not temporary. Many of them are not transitory and many of them are not random events. They’re going to be sources of volatility. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.